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Yokohama - a dog's breakfast of Olympic qualifications
Aaron Webstey
Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers
in Main
Start with this: http://www.triathlon.org/news/article/olympic_qualification_update_ahead_of_yokohama
Who will qualify for the US men? Will Katie Z pull off the auto-qualify? Who will have more Olympians this year, @joelfilliol or @TheActualPaulo ?
Canadians - can Yorke and Jones hang on? Will Tyler 'Coleslaw Chuck' Mislawchuk grab a spot?
Who will qualify for the US men? Will Katie Z pull off the auto-qualify? Who will have more Olympians this year, @joelfilliol or @TheActualPaulo ?
Canadians - can Yorke and Jones hang on? Will Tyler 'Coleslaw Chuck' Mislawchuk grab a spot?
#KOAT
Comments
I I have a feeling Katie Z will auto qualify as well but you never know with ITU racing!
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- Ben Kanute would need a 20th to catch Eric;
- Kevin McDowell needs a 14th to catch Eric;
- Jarrod Shoemaker needs a 10th to catch Eric.
Now it's so much more complicated of course because Eric can improve his score with a 20th or better. It looks pretty locked up for Greg and Joe. Remember no one is auto-qualified, however, so anyone in the top-3 goes to Rio.For the ladies, no one can catch Katie on points -- they would need a top-3. There is always the option of picking a domestique, but the list of potential athletes (you need to be "Olympic eligible" -- basically top-140 in one of the three ITU points lists) are not capable domestiques at this level, in my opinion. Note: Sarah Haskins is NOT eligible.
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ITU da best.
What the hell was in Joe Maloy's mouth on the run? Chewing gum?
However, I have no idea who they would pick out of the women eligible to fill the role. Gwen has been swimming and riding well in the front pack. She has definitely improved from a couple years ago when she "needed" someone to pull her to the front (Edmonton 2014).
On the women's side, we have two athletes capable of winning because of how well the performed at the Rio selection event. Of course, we all know Katie is capable as well, based on her amazing racing resume over the last two years or so.
Let's look at the men: The domestique criteria goes on to say that after each athlete earns his position through the Objective Ranking System (ORS) (ironically named because the ranking is based on athlete performances at the five selection races, which is subjective), a domestique may be considered before filling the rest of the team. So after Joe qualified as #1 in the ORS, EASC would have considered a domestique. After not choosing to select one, Greg earned his slot and EASC reconsidered. Finally, Ben earned his place. My guess is that USAT and EASC had already agreed before the race that they wouldn't be supporting the US men with a domestique. I think we all agree that this makes sense for them. The men's team is much deeper than it has been in a long time (ever?), but they aren't quite at the women's level yet.
Back to the women: Let's all agree that Gwen and Sarah would meet the designation that they are capable of winning in Rio. Katie didn't qualify automatically, so now we are at this possible domestique selection. I think it does make sense to consider it on the women's side.
The criteria for domestiques says 1) consistent first-pack swimming results in WTS and World Cups, 2) "a record of superior cycling time-trial ability in non-drafting, or draft-legal events, and 3) "Demonstrated knowledge of cycling team tactics." Before you say, "Sarah Haskins!," I will add that all athletes need to be Olympic eligible. Sarah Haskins is not top-140 on the ITU points list, Olympic points list, or the 2015 WTS ranking, per the criteria.
So who IS eligible?
- Katie Zaferes
- Kirsten Kasper
- Renee Tomlin
- Summer Cook
- Lindsey Jerdonek
- Erin Dolan
- Erin Jones
- Taylor Spivey
- Kaitlin Donner
- Chelsea Burns
- Taylor Knibb
- Nicole Truxes
- Avery Evenson
- Johanna Gartman
- Bria Edwards
- Jessica Broderick
I think most people would agree that under the domestique criteria listed, Katie is the best choice there. So, if USAT really wants a domestique, I think they would ask Katie.So Katie should be either a domestique or as an ORS qualifier, in my "objective" opinion. It sort of becomes a sticky situation when you ask an athlete capable of medalling to forfeit their race for someone else. Maybe then they look to Kirsten Kasper? But I don't really know how her cycling ability is, which is going to matter in Rio.
TL;DR: The women's final selection is taking longer than the men because the women's team has two athletes that are capable of winning in Rio and they are considering a domestique. Domestique or on her own merit, I think Katie should be selected. (and I certainly lean towards on-her-own-merit)
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I more didn't understand how the automatic qualification criteria had NOT been met for the women, but had for the men? How had Katie not automatically qualified? But the three men did? (Given she finished/finishes much higher than them?)
my question would be
1. if US asks Katie to be a domestique, does she take the spot?
2. if she takes the spot will she be a domestique at the race or race her own race?
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Clear as mud?
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Below, 1.3.1 is Automatic qualification. 1.3.3 is ORS.
I understand that to mean that domestique will be reconsidered after each individual is selected from ORS, as I described earlier.
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As far as her age, she has at least a couple Olympic cycles, so it might not be a bad idea at all to get her "the experience" now before she's a legitimate contender in 2020 and beyond.
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The Olympics isn't just an ITU race, it's not just a world championship race, it's a once in a lifetime race for many athletes, anything can and does happen.
Also, Helen Jenkins is in great form and improving, there are plenty of women who can and will likely be in front of Gwen off the bike, it's not at all a certainty that Gwen will be close enough to run them down.
Picking someone who swims at least as well as Gwen and who can be an aggressive bike leadout would be the smart thing to do and certainly not the bs option.
Now, how exactly did the US Men get 3 slots? Yeah I know..... But really
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Smart or BS? I think it depends on if you think the Gold medal is the ultimate goal for the US in an "individual" sport and worth potentially losing a podium contender in your 3rd slot and risk reeling in your #2 athlete that may be in a bike breakaway that is also a podium contender and placed 4th in London and Rio test event.
Until/if mixed relay gets into the Olympics I don't think athlete selections should be based on team tactics and instead should just send the top 3 athletes when all 3 have proven they can make the podium. US placed 1/4/6 in the Rio test event (not to mention other podiums during the qualification period) so they should give their top 3 athletes an opportunity to race.
ITU triathlon despite what you assert, hasn't been a genuine individual sport since Leanda cave won the world's in 2002. Since then it's become more and more about teams for the big Olympic tri countries, and unless you are a selector, what you think, doesn't matter. Team managers, selectors in many countries have been selecting domestiques for key races since then.
The fact that the US is late to the party, and didn't have real contender for the 2012 Olympics, and Laura Bennett was a place rather than a win for 2008, doesn't mean USAT can select likes it's 2004 all over again.
If you look at the potential podium candidates for the Olympics and compare to the test event, you'll get a very different list. While I'm not arguing the Americans have a chance for 3 podium places, only an amateur whose job didn't depend on it would actually plan for that.
World domination is best left to the Donald, he is the only person who thinks that crushing the opposition is both a good thing, and possible..
I have nothing for/against any of the USA team members, all of whom could have a spot... sadly it doesn't work like that, ask Jodie Swallow for example about the British 2004 selection process and the debacle that ensued.
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Note @Jennifer Post you can't have it both ways... its either Individual, in which case the men should only get two slots, or its a team selection in which case, you select for the best team outcome.
http://markcathcart.com/about/
As for your other point about Gwen being invincible. No, I don't think she is invincible but I still think the other two women that are among the world's best should be able to compete. If USAT goes with a domestique instead of Katie I hope it backfires on them like it did on GB on their home soil when they went with Hall. I'd be quite happy to see a podium with Hewitt at the top followed by others such as Duffy, Norden, Sanford, Jenkins, Gentle, or True.
And yes, I realize I am not a selector so as you point out it doesn't really matter but I still am allowed my opinion as a fan.
yes there is maybe a 4th athlete from other countries that are ahead of our 3rd athlete, but how many of those are there ? 1-2 okay cool 1-2 people better athletes don't get spots but now if we are talking 3-10 athletes then yes maybe there is a case to talk about
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