Martin

Hello Roosters,

Is the Zach Miller that came 2nd at UTMB the same one that used to frequent here?

That's bonkers.

https://run247.com/running-news/trail/utmb-2023-results-report-jim-walmsley

Stage 13 - The intensity of Tadej's 400m to go attacks would see me laid up for a year to recover. Assuming I could even ride 140km and still have enough punch to stand up on my pedals. I'm not sure that you can win a Tour 7 seconds at a time, but he's doing his best to try, and we're lucky to see it.

Today was pretty much as planned, with Mike Kwiatkowski reminding us that he still has some former-World Champ-multiple monuments-former TDF stage winner form after a decidedly off-year in 2022. While he might be best remembered for some of his mind-blowing pace setting for Froome and that era of Sky (throwing off his sunglasses to reduce his weight by a few grams so he could push for another 100 meters, then coming to a complete stop in exhaustion), he can push a pedal in anger on his own behalf as well. Sad to see Caleb Ewan time out. He had a chance earlier in the Tour but lost to bad genetics (he's short, Phillipsen is tall).

Stage 14 - La journée des polka-dot contenders. A cat 3 climb to start, then three tasty Cat 1s before the Col de Joux Plane, aka Floyd's Folly after his curiously strong ride here all those years ago, aka "Full Cheeks" if you translate it poorly. Full shorts is more like it. Brutal climb, sketchy as hell high-speed descent to the finish, a relatively tight top 8 on GC, a prodigious descender (Bilbao) stalking fifth place, and a vulnerable Hindley sitting in third.

High probability that another large breakaway goes the distance and that Tadej and Vingegaard keep their powder dry for Sunday and Wednesday's uphill finishes (unless one of them shows weakness early). As for picks, Izagirre has won here before but it would be uncouth for him to win two in one week and c'mon, Cofidis couldn't win three, could they? Powless will be firing to protect his polka-dots but I'm not sold on him to ride it to Paris just yet. I couldn't help but notice that Ciccone was virtually absent today, so assuming he's not ill, he's my pick for tomorrow. A- climber, solid descender, over 20 minutes down, and quiet so far.

Stage 12 - Jakobsen out? Check. Sprinters out after 60k? Check. Hellish stage? Only if you were riding it and had an angry DS screaming in your ear to get in the break or shut down the break. Anyway, I like Izagirre, so kudos to him for the win. And to Cofidis for doubling the number of stage victories they have had over the past 15 years despite being invited every year because someone at the ASO has a deposit in their bank and doesn't want to see a run on them.

Stage 13 - so this looks like your typical flat stage ending on an HC climb, and if we were somewhere like the Giro d'Italia, or the Tour of Langkawi or something, we would see a break quickly establish itself, leading to a slow three hour procession to the bottom of the climb at which point the GC teams would drop the hammer and scrape back a 27 minute lead that the break had been given within the first 6 km of the climb.

But this is not one of those lesser tours.* This is the Tour de France. And it's Bastille Day in France. and all of the stages to date have been won by what, five teams?, which means there are 16 teams that have done nothing to get their sponsors off their backs. And the stage is under 140 kilometers long. The average speed of the first 100 kilometers of this stage is going to be something that has not been seen before unless a giant break of nobodies - and I mean 22+ guys over an hour back on GC, with every non-GC team equally represented, and at least eight native French riders - gets away early. And after today's stage? There will be a lot of broken hearts out there. It would be crazy to pick anyone but the two favorites for the yellow jersey on this stage, with my nod going to Vingegaard if only because I think he's been waiting to get to the Alps, but if that large group gets out there early look for Powless, Haig or Alaphilippe to win with panache.

** I prefer the Giro to the Tour, and have no real opinion on Langkawi but would like to visit someday.

Stage 11 - sprint stage, some sunflowers, yadda yadda yadda Phillipsen wins despite not having a generational rider as his leadout man. For some reason, earlier today I had a vision of Fred Armisten playing Phillipsen in a movie, or maybe standing in for him on an episode of Unchained next season. Probably something I ate.

Stage 12 - like yesterday, but there are two fewer chances for some teams to win a stage than there were on Tuesday. It's a rolling, hellish stage. Sprinters will be out of it with at best 60k to go, but more likely with 130 to go. The 8th to 20th place GC guys will be thinking of a win. The classics riders like JA, Wout, Mads, and the third-best Slovenian rider, all here grudgingly for sponsor contractual reasons, will be trying to justify their existence and win some extra sugar and dairy free ice cream substitute for their teams. Soudal QS has nothing to show for this Tour and Jakobsen should have pulled the pin about three days ago, so I expect a full on Classics display from the Wolfpack. Then they can send everyone home like they did at the Giro, where by the end Serry and Van Wilder were alone on the bus and Remco had deactivated his Netflix subscription.on the entertainment system. JA for the win, I guess, or Wout.

@Tad_M said:
2 for 2 on what? That gets us old guys curious!

I picked both winners. Pedersen was an easy one, but on Sunday I had a coin toss between Woods and Jorgensen. I went with Woods because he's Canadian, eh, then spent a long couple of hours second guessing myself then jumping out of my seat in the car when it became clear Woods was going to make the catch. If you recall last year, Woods and Houle got in a break and the plan was for Houle to pull Woods to the line. Unfortunately for Woods at the time, they could not shake Madouas and when one of Houle's attacks stuck, he rode to victory. (Coincidentally, considering my Saturday pick, Houle had lost in a break to Pedersen a couple of days earlier.)

Stage 10

I think a lot of people hoped this would happen on Stage 1 (to honor Gino Mäder), but despite Bilbao's descending prowess, he was in a stacked group and couldn't make it happen. Cue a similar stage a few 1000km later, and despite teammate Mohoric breaking out his signature dropper post, a late scare by MVDP and WVA, a desperation move by a so-far disappointing Ben O'Connor, and a simply evil stage profile, Bilbao nailed it, ensuring a nice little stand of trees will be planted in his teammate's memory. (Others have written far more eloquently than I about this.)

Stage 11

It's a sprint stage, but it's not a flat day by any means. Lots of rollers, a couple of low category climbs but nothing too close to the finish. So in the words of Admiral Akbar, "It's a trap!" Some middling break will get away, rope-a-dope the peloton into thinking they are weak then dropping the hammer when it's just a few seconds too late to make the catch... Ah, never mind. This has bunch sprint written all over it.

@kjrunnin said:
I'm missing @Martin 's recaps this year.

I miss writing them as well. Been busy on other things but will try to pick up in week 2.

I went 2 for 2 over the weekend, so I'm slightly more motivated now.

Here's the invite:

Join me in the league now no.1739 : Tour de Roost
Password : WTTHY
By clicking on this link :
https://fantasybytissot.letour.fr/#welcome/register/?parrain=eu94knc&ligue=1739&mdp=WTTHY

Remember to log in daily to answer quiz questions for a chance for bonus credits that you can use to swap riders in and out when dogs, cows, and fans with signs greeting their grandparents take out your leaders.

@James Lange said:
I've never been able to get into it, but if there's fantasy I'm in.

Just watch the new Unchained series on Netflix. You'll be so confused that you'll need to watch a Tour from end to end just to make sense of it all.

If anyone is interested, I'll set up the fantasy pool as soon as teams are announced and will try to recruit some new people.

I'm making an early prediction of the first stage for Michael Woods, because it's on Canada Day, I'm a homer, there's a Cat 2 at 30k, and a sharp Cat 3 10k from the finish to wipe out the sprinters.

These are also reasons for it to be a GC-ish sprint featuring between Pogie, Vingy & Gaudu. Oh, and the hard men like Wout, MVDP, Alaphilippe, Bling or Girmay, and any other GC hopeful.

My dark horse is Valverde, who, in retirement, will ride the stage on the bike path in cargo shorts then hop onto the road for the last climbs and win anyway.

I'm signed up for one in August but am blissfully ignorant about them. I can swim and run, so I have that bit covered. I can drill holes in running shoes to let water out, and in a pullbuoy to put surgical tubing through it, and despite having swum for 30 years, I usually manage 12-13 strokes with paddles on before dunking my fingers in early and having one yank off.

Do I need one of these fancy shorty wetsuits that zip front and back, or should I just have a wetsuit shop cut an old tri wetsuit at the knees and pray for a cool day?

(I am sorely tempted to just do it in my Rooster Endurance budgie smugglers and sneakers if that's allowed.)

@Aaron Webstey if you have any local knowledge about the trail conditions and elevation changes at the Sackville Lakes provincial park, it would be appreciated.