Bold Kona Predictions

bbculp · September 2019

Put some shit out there. I'll start...

-Wurf will win the men's race by more than Ryf wins the women's race. The Hawaiian gods are sick of Daniela's shit, and the jellyfish were the first attempt to stop her last year. This year she'll be attacked by one of those crazy goats that roam the lava fields.

-Heather Jackson will finish third, and the race for third among the women will be the best race of the day.

-Sarah True will remain conscious for all 140.6 miles.

-Starykowicz will finish in the top 15. I'm pretty sure he'll be the heaviest guy ever to crack the top 20.

-Cody Beals will finish in the top 5. I feel more confident about this than anything else I've written so far.

-Ali Brownlee will DNF. Actually more confident about this than Beals finishing in the top 5.

-No professional athletes will have a positive doping control in the months to come. But a handful of South American age-groupers will test positive for all the drugs.

-If Daniela brings up how great Sutto is during the presser, I will ask a question about child rape and probably lose my credential before race day. Because apparently you can't talk about sexual assault in 2019.

-Nasser bin Hamad al Khalifa will not repeat as "Ironman World Champion."

Matt · September 2019

Herbert Krabel already getting under Starky's skin with the "excuses gun fully loaded" comment because AS has not been training since 70.3WC since his kids are sick with flu and therefore so is he.

Also, is he lighter than Ain-Alar Juhanson who went 13th in 2008?

Who finishes between Ryf and Jackson? I say Anne Haug gets real close to the top step in a close battle with Lucy Charles. HJ in 4th.

Kienle? Frodeno? Lange?

I want Michi Weiss and Stefan Schumacher to accidentally get drafting penalties.

My heart still goes out to Terenzo Bozzone who should have had a stellar Kona 2018, but then got hit by a truck. Hoping his rehab has gone well and he crushes it.

wchevron · September 2019

Lange is going to get dropped on the bike then run through the field and nip Frodo at the finish

Wurf is going to lead off the bike but then blow up on the run.

Brownlee is going to drop out on the run.

Ryf will win again.

Lionel will make top 20 if he is lucky

Women top 5 Ryf, Charles, True, Jackson, Haug

Martin · September 2019

Lange. Beals. Wurf.

Ryf.Charles.Fernanda Keller.

M_Ware · September 2019

@Brew_Tri want to organize some sort of virtual Rooster meet up like a couple of years ago?

Struang · September 2019

M_Ware said:
@Brew_Tri want to organize some sort of virtual Rooster meet up like a couple of years ago?

You mean we all join a Skype call and spend the day (night for us europeans) drinking and making inappropriate comments?

M_Ware · September 2019

@Struang yes, or Google hangout or something like that. I prefer a non video option.

Martin · September 2019

M_Ware said:
@Struang yes, or Google hangout or something like that. I prefer a non video option.

It's ok @M_Ware, 98% of us don't wear pants during video conferences. It's perfectly normal.

Tad_M · September 2019

Struang said:

M_Ware said:
@Brew_Tri want to organize some sort of virtual Rooster meet up like a couple of years ago?
You mean we all join a Skype call and spend the day (night for us europeans) drinking and making inappropriate comments?

Dont worry, only a rough transcript will ever be released. What could go wrong with that??????

Brew_Tri · September 2019

M_Ware said:
@Brew_Tri want to organize some sort of virtual Rooster meet up like a couple of years ago?

I will be in and out that day. Someone else will have to host. Usually the google hangouts works the best. Someone could set up a discord maybe.

M_Ware · September 2019

I’ll probably be at the office until around noon that Saturday morning, so also not a good candidate for setting it up. Anyone else interested?

gregk · October 2019

My predictions, @bbculp ...

We'll see oodles of top-notch exercising going on.

There will be 20x as many AG dopers than pros (in part because the AG field is so much bigger).

Disc brakes, thru axles, and press-fit bottom brackets will continue to optimize the stiffness and speed gains of absolutely nothing. Hydraulic brakes will cause no fewer than two dozen bike box disasters and/or panic attacks trying to find the tiny, proprietary parts to fix it before bike check-in.

See also: Good luck with neutral wheel support on race day, with the combined horror of 9-speed, 10-speed, 11-speed, 12-speed, quick release, thru axles, rim brakes, disc brakes (see also: different rotor sizes and placement) 700c, 650c, 650b, and probably more new standards that I'm forgetting. Some asshole will also be on a single speed, with his dingus buddy on a fat bike.

The count of bikes, wheels, components, helmets, etc... will tell us a lot about who is successful at last-minute marketing, free product giveaways, and not a whole lot about the actual marketplace or what keeps bike industry companies in business.

bbculp · October 2019

@gregk You shut your mouth about the bike count. That's the only way I still get a free trip to Hawaii every October.

p.s. Want to be quoted in a pre-bike count story? Call you tomorrow?

Martin · October 2019

gregk said:

The count of bikes, wheels, components, helmets, etc... will tell us a lot about who is successful at last-minute marketing, free product giveaways, and not a whole lot about the actual marketplace or what keeps bike industry companies in business.

An, the Rudy Project effect...

wchevron · October 2019

gregk · October 2019

bbculp said:
@gregk You shut your mouth about the bike count. That's the only way I still get a free trip to Hawaii every October.

p.s. Want to be quoted in a pre-bike count story? Call you tomorrow?

@bbculp #sworry for raining on the bike count parade, but of course I want to be quoted spouting out my infinite bicycle wisdom.

gregk · October 2019

Martin said:

gregk said:

The count of bikes, wheels, components, helmets, etc... will tell us a lot about who is successful at last-minute marketing, free product giveaways, and not a whole lot about the actual marketplace or what keeps bike industry companies in business.

An, the Rudy Project effect...

@Martin yup... easy to win the count when you give away your product for free to any Kona qualifier. The count also doesn't take into account big influences like OEM spec of components and saddles (i.e. a LOT of people just ride what came on their bike, so it's not truly a reflection of that person's individual product choice for each component), nor rental wheels.

Rash · October 2019

Prediction: There's a possibility of wind and it could be hot.

Also, Dan invented bike counts and Kona after he came up with the bike itself. Monty remembers...

Matt · October 2019

gregk said:

Martin said:

gregk said:

The count of bikes, wheels, components, helmets, etc... will tell us a lot about who is successful at last-minute marketing, free product giveaways, and not a whole lot about the actual marketplace or what keeps bike industry companies in business.

An, the Rudy Project effect...
@Martin yup... easy to win the count when you give away your product for free to any Kona qualifier. The count also doesn't take into account big influences like OEM spec of components and saddles (i.e. a LOT of people just ride what came on their bike, so it's not truly a reflection of that person's individual product choice for each component), nor rental wheels.

Except ISM saddles almost never came stock on Tri bikes until recently.

James Lange · October 2019

Lucy Charles has the fastest overall swim at 47:47.

Lionel bikes faster than Wurf (but doesn't catch him) and runs a 4:22 marathon.

Ryf has the best female bike split by over 20 minutes.

Brownlee 2nd, Beals 3rd.

Haug is the only woman to run sub-3hrs.

Lange gets a drafting penalty, runs a 2:39 marathon, finishes 4th, and calls off his engagement at the finish line.

Wurf wins and @bbculp is super humble about his early prediction.

Martin · October 2019

James Lange said:

Ryf has the best female bike split by over 20 minutes.

I like this one.

Jennifer Post · October 2019

@James Lange I love the idea of calling off his engagement on the finish line. That would be refreshing. I hate all public proposals. I know we’ll soon reach the day when see someone do a gender reveal as they cross a finish line.

wchevron · October 2019

If Lange ends up winning, where does that put him as far as standings against his competitors. Even as a 2x winner, he doesn't seem to get any respect from anyone. If he wins and is a 3x winner, that puts him with the same amount of wins as Crowie and Peter Reid.
Would you then have to say he's better than Kienle and maybe on par with Frodeno?

Matt · October 2019

To me he's better than Kienle, but not Frodeno. Needs a 70.3 WC and a real win over Jan

Rash · October 2019

Hard to argue he's in the same ballpark as Jan even with a third. I don't follow Lange closely, but he hasn't dominated every race or even many races in the past 10 years (outside Kona). I think a third would just show that he is really good in the heat/humidity and can bike smart in races with large bike packs to allow him to unleash his run. He's the inverse of Marino Vanhoenacker who never could perform in the heat/humidity.

Jan has shown he can win across all distances and in some different conditions. Jan has also shown he can win any individual leg of the race (or multiple) depending on what conditions call for on the day.

Brew_Tri · October 2019

Jennifer Post said:
@James Lange I love the idea of calling off his engagement on the finish line. That would be refreshing. I hate all public proposals. I know we’ll soon reach the day when see someone do a gender reveal as they cross a finish line.

I'm waiting until my last ironman to do the "accidentally drop a fake child" bit at the finish line.

Matt · October 2019

Rick Hoyt will surprise everyone and tow/push Dick this year.

Tad_M · October 2019

Matt said:
Rick Hoyt will surprise everyone and tow/push Dick this year.

If a scientific breakthrough could make this happen, I would be happy and at peace to never watch another shread of triathlon footage again in my life.

gregk · October 2019

Matt said:

gregk said:

Martin said:

gregk said:

The count of bikes, wheels, components, helmets, etc... will tell us a lot about who is successful at last-minute marketing, free product giveaways, and not a whole lot about the actual marketplace or what keeps bike industry companies in business.

An, the Rudy Project effect...
@Martin yup... easy to win the count when you give away your product for free to any Kona qualifier. The count also doesn't take into account big influences like OEM spec of components and saddles (i.e. a LOT of people just ride what came on their bike, so it's not truly a reflection of that person's individual product choice for each component), nor rental wheels.
Except ISM saddles almost never came stock on Tri bikes until recently.

@Matt They've been getting OEM spec for a good handful of years now, on brands such as Cervelo (who has won the bike count several times), QR, and Ventum. Granted, all of their early climb in the count was aftermarket, but OE has definitely played a part in the last 5-7 years (I've participated in the count several years, having worked for companies like ISM and Zipp). It's like Shimano having such a high count, when they get a LOT of OE spec, or Zipp enjoying the benefits of Race Day Wheels exclusively renting Zipp.

I'm not saying that any of these companies rely solely on OEM spec (or rentals) - just that it's a very clear influence that gets glossed over or ignored. I think the Kona count started with good intentions, but it became a big marketing play for companies to use (i.e. if your sponsored athletes don't win the race, you can still "win" Kona by winning the count, and marketing it heavily). And with that came companies gaming the system i.e. Rudy giving away their product to anyone that races Hawaii.

Matt · October 2019

That's why I used a combination of Kona and Roth bike counts to try and analyse the trends when I made some adjustments in the 2019 specs last year at my former job

gregk · October 2019

@Matt yeah, it's always best to multi-source. And end of the day, I'm not losing sleep over the Kona count. It's a decent measure of what's being used by elite age groupers and pros for long course tri, just doesn't dig into any of the 'why'. Companies will use it for marketing, and I know that the majority of the people at those companies are good people and just want to keep their jobs.

I just stress to folks to take ALL marketing with a grain of salt, especially that which uses the bandwagon fallacy. Four out of five doctors recommend this medicine... did they maybe receive a nice vacation from the drug company to help persuade them?!

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