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Fantasy Tour de France 2019 - win a Roost t-shirt!

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    MattMatt Member, Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member
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    Jennifer PostJennifer Post Member, Rooster Endurance Member, Level 2 Supporter
    Matt said:

    I was "Matt's Marauders"

    Now I just feel stupid. At least I didn’t ask who was behind team Brekke’s Buttholes and Team Zach Miller.
    MattTad_Mkjrunnin
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member

    Was really thinking this year was an opening for the other teams, but nobody else really showed up ready to play.

    I don't know that this is true. The race was pretty open until the Alps, and the weather threw a huge monkey wrench into the last two days. We saw a very solid Pinot attacking constantly, a powerhouse Jumbo Lotto, and solid rides from Landa and (eventually) Uran. If Jumbo has Wout in the third week, does that give them the 1% they need to ride another person off the wheels in the Alps? If the teams of Uran and Pinot hold it together in the crosswinds, does it change the outcome? How does Bora handle the ascendant Buchmann next year? Would Movistar trade three top 10 placings for a podium spot?

    At the end of the day, it's a 21 day race. Ineos protected their guys enough in the first two weeks, and Castrojevo, van Baarle and Poels showed up in the Alps. Maybe the plan was for Geraint to win, but Mother Nature intervened. They end up 1-2 in the most important cycling race of the year.

    Next year? It will depend on how they set the course, but assuming they have more TT mileage, Jumbo will have Dumoulin or Roglic and SK at the tour, with Wout as a possible green jersey contender. That puts them and Ineos as the favourites.

    FDJ has a roster of young climbers coming up that can support Pinot in what might be his last real shot. (They quietly put two riders not named Pinot in the top 20 on GC.) And Movistar has lost pretty much all of their GC guys, so you don't have a wild card holding the race together (or trying to blow it apart) for no obvious reason.

    It's almost too bad that Bora has Sagan. Buchmann deserves a dedicated team for at least one GT next year. Sponsorship requirements mean this will probably be the Giro or Vuelta.

    Ineos 2020 will be a similar team to this year. (I can't imagine Froome returns to form after that crash.) Their next decision is whether they try for a Grand Slam with Bernal right now. He looks pretty good, but post-Tour media demands will be heavy, and Trans-Atlantic. The Vuelta is similar to the Tour this year without any huge TTs (and strangely, the ITT in the Vuelta will also end in Pau...). It's a good fit for Bernal.
    AaronWebsteyJennifer PostMatt
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    KHilgendorfKHilgendorf Member, Rooster Endurance Member, POTM
    I tend to agree Froome is likely out as a contender, but Ineos should have Bernal primed for a tour defence. I suspect that organizers will drop the absolute elevation for next year as a way to limit the columbian advantage and improve France's chances. Add in doumulin and some more TT kms now that we've discovered a Frenchman who can ride them, make the ITT flat to further limit the climber advantage and you could see a similar situation to this year where the outcome is uncertain through 18 stages.

    I just felt that with the Ineos train struggling so much this year, it was a golden chance for someone to take advantage of any misfortune. Should Bernal or Thomas have a mechanical when the race is on, does the other stop to assist (no) or push on with the group (yes). They were fortunate not to have that come up and bite them. Dumoulin, Roglic, maybe Nibali, maybe Carapaz, plus up-and-comers Mas and Buchmann, not to mention Pinot, could all prove difficult for Ineos. Especially if they throw full support behind a weakened Froome.
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    MattMatt Member, Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member

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