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Comments

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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member

    If van aert gets a green light to go for it tomorrow, he's my pick. Yellow, white, plus the stage. Alaphillipe is the backup plan. He might get the stage, but if the group comes to the line together, jimbo won't try with groenewegen, and teunessen is likely too heavy on that slope, too. But the have a hell of a second choice to keep yellow with van aert.

    I like WVA as well, but that last ramp is damn steep...
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    I know it's all Tour, all the time, but the women's Giro D'Italia is on right now and you have to watch the end of yesterday's stage:

    MattM_WareJennifer Postslickfins_Ryan
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    AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers
    Oooooooh myyyyyyyyy goooooooooooddddddddddd noooooo
    Martin
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    KHilgendorfKHilgendorf Member, Rooster Endurance Member, POTM
    edited July 8
    Martin said:

    If van aert gets a green light to go for it tomorrow, he's my pick. Yellow, white, plus the stage. Alaphillipe is the backup plan. He might get the stage, but if the group comes to the line together, jimbo won't try with groenewegen, and teunessen is likely too heavy on that slope, too. But the have a hell of a second choice to keep yellow with van aert.

    I like WVA as well, but that last ramp is damn steep...
    And the last ramp proves to be irrelevant (at least for the win). Good thing I didnt heed my own advice and left alaphilippe as my captain.

    Also, Vos is a beast.
    Martin
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member

    Martin said:

    If van aert gets a green light to go for it tomorrow, he's my pick. Yellow, white, plus the stage. Alaphillipe is the backup plan. He might get the stage, but if the group comes to the line together, jimbo won't try with groenewegen, and teunessen is likely too heavy on that slope, too. But the have a hell of a second choice to keep yellow with van aert.

    I like WVA as well, but that last ramp is damn steep...
    And the last ramp proves to be irrelevant (at least for the win). Good thing I didnt heed my own advice and left alaphilippe as my captain.

    Also, Vos is a beast.
    That hill looked painful enough. The guys in the top 10 are basically all elite classics racers. It was not one for the diesels.

    I loved the little dodge made by Bernal when Alaphilippe rode away, before the Ineos-Race-Plan-Enforcement-Bot went off in his ear telling him to sit down.

    Also, Landa can go to hell. Blocker.

    Stage 4
    Tomorrow looks like a few hours of drudgery followed by a crash or two and a field sprint, so I won't bother with a prediction beyond the fact that several ProConti teams will have French nationals riding in a hopeless break for most of the day. Yellow no change. Green probably no change. Polka dot can't change (but probably will on Wednesday). White won't change.
    AaronWebstey
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    KHilgendorfKHilgendorf Member, Rooster Endurance Member, POTM
    What did Landa block? He took off over the summit in a counter with woods et al, trying to bridge to loulou, only to realize they were all very, very outclassed on that descent. I wouldn't be surprised if ineos brass did tell Bernal to sit down, but only to save himself from the inevitable crash trying to follow on that descent.

    Also, the climbers may have high w/kg for 30 min, but most can't follow a classics/cx guy over a 1-2 minute jump. I wouldn't be surprised if Bernal et al knew that attack was coming but just didn't have a response in that scenario. GT said it best that even if he could have gone with Loulou, it would have been an absolute maximal effort, and he would have been dropped on the descent anyway.
    Martin
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member

    What did Landa block?

    He blocked that foursome. They said it on the broadcast and you can even see it visually a couple of times that the group basically stops pedalling every time he came to the fore. It makes sense, in that this was an Ardennes-style finish and they have Valverde on their team, but I'm a homer and thus a Woods fan so I'm going to complain about it anyway.

    AaronWebstey
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    So, no surprises on Stage 4. Nothing like seeing a sprinter being led out by a yellow jersey.

    Stage 5 tomorrow. It's the battle for the early polka dot jersey with two Cat 2 and two Cat 3 hills. The last hill is not a killer, so I would not be hugely surprised to see this come down to a sprint with the classics riders. The yellow jersey hopefuls will probably do some negative racing and keep their powder dry for Thursday.

    Picks: Wellens for polka dots. Alaphillipe, Matthews, GVA, for the stage.

    It's almost too bad that Astana has a legit GC hope this year. This is the kind of stage they probably would have won last year.
    Matt
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Damn. Sagan looks good this year. Gonna be a lot of sore legs tomorrow.
    Matt
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    MattMatt Member, Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member


    The 20% section (between the 2 green 'flats' is where the Tour finished in 2017 when Aru took the stage win.
    MartinAaronWebstey
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    Jennifer PostJennifer Post Member, Rooster Endurance Member, Level 2 Supporter
    And so it begins.... made a last-minute decision last night to change my road captain from Sagan to Van Aert. Now I expect to be second-guessing my road captains for the next 16 stages.
    M_WareAaronWebsteyMattCraig_D
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    AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers

    And so it begins.... made a last-minute decision last night to change my road captain from Sagan to Van Aert. Now I expect to be second-guessing my road captains for the next 16 stages.

    Ditto!!! Not van aert but I pulled a similar move.
    Jennifer Post
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    KHilgendorfKHilgendorf Member, Rooster Endurance Member, POTM
    @Jennifer Post same van Aert decision here.
    Thought he might try an attack on the final hill. We only missed out on 55 points, though.
    AaronWebsteyJennifer Post
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    MattMatt Member, Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member
    Which climber do I make road captain for tomorrow? Or will it be a breakaway/KoM hunter?
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    Zach MillerZach Miller Member, Rooster Endurance Member, POTM
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    wchevronwchevron Member, POTM
    We are supposed to change our road captains?
    I do the old "set it and forget it". It won me March Madness. I'll be top of the leaderboard by the start of the 3rd week.
    M_WareAaronWebsteyJennifer PostTad_MMatt
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    AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers
    wchevron said:

    We are supposed to change our road captains?
    I do the old "set it and forget it". It won me March Madness. I'll be top of the leaderboard by the start of the 3rd week.

    Watch for both t-shirts to be in the mail by 2069!
    Tad_MMattwchevron
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Well, not a great day to forget to change my captain from Dylan...

    Pinot looking good. Really, really good. And GT.

    And a Canadian in the top 10 on GC! Nice!
    AaronWebsteyMattJennifer Post
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    FINALLY! Dylan Greenroads rips one clear. Heartbreaker for Ewan.

    Today was a painfully boring stage outside of the last 800m and that little break when Quintana and Dan Martin stopped to smell the sunflowers as the peloton was accelerating.

    Tomorrow is a thing of beauty with five Cat 2s and two Cat 3s jammed into 200 km of racing. The intermediate sprint is at 33k, and after that the profile is up and down. The 'Bonus Bonus' seconds are available on the last Cat 3, with 8 seconds on offer for first. Alaphillipe could use these to sneak back into yellow, as he is only six behind, but while it's his kind of terrain I believe his performance on the Planche des Belles Filles will see him marked more closely by the GC teams than on his last stage win. Offredo also could see this as an opportunity to reduce his 'lanterne rouge' deficit to just under seven minutes, but probably won't.

    With so many climbs, this could be a stage with some polka dot implications. Have a nice day out front, Wellens. And maybe Zakarin, who at 32 minutes off the lead either needs to target a stage or this jersey...
    Jennifer PostMatt
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    Jennifer PostJennifer Post Member, Rooster Endurance Member, Level 2 Supporter
    I only watched the last 15 mins or so and that was plenty. Got lucky and remembered to switch road captain to “Greenroads” so managed to stay on top of fantasy podium (Zoom-Zoom). However, I think my choice to ban all riders from INEOS on my team is going to starting biting me soon.
    AaronWebsteyM_WareMattMartin
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    M_WareM_Ware Member, Rooster Endurance Member, Level 2 Supporter
    Things I do to try to make better picks. The only thing I’ve learned so far is that George has aged better than Lance.

    AaronWebsteyMartin
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    KHilgendorfKHilgendorf Member, Rooster Endurance Member, POTM
    Forgot to swap captains from Bernal to groenewegen today. So I missed out on 192 bonus points. Thanks for the 8 extra, Egan.
    Jennifer PostMartin
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    Jennifer PostJennifer Post Member, Rooster Endurance Member, Level 2 Supporter
    M_Ware said:

    Things I do to try to make better picks. The only thing I’ve learned so far is that George has aged better than Lance.

    NOTHING is worth listening to that asswipe.
    M_WareMattMartin
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    MattMatt Member, Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member
    What a stage! So glad I made De Gendt my road captain today.
    MartinKHilgendorfJennifer Post
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Matt said:

    What a stage! So glad I made De Gendt my road captain today.

    Ballsy call, but nicely done. I almost chose Terpstra. Glad I went with Bling.
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    edited July 15
    That was one helluva sprint. And the GC just fractured like a Pinarello on a bad corner.
    Jennifer PostMattAaronWebstey
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    Jennifer PostJennifer Post Member, Rooster Endurance Member, Level 2 Supporter
    Did EF go left and that’s how they got dropped or did they get dropped later? I saw EF take the lead and then I had to take a phone call and when I checked back in their tour GC dreams were crushed.

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