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Cam Wurf is going to win Kona

bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
in Main
I don't think it'll be close. Discuss.
James LangeMattellsworth53tgregk
«1

Comments

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    James LangeJames Lange Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    I'd love to see Wurf win, but I think he needs be be at least 10 minutes up on the first class runners (Lange, Fordeno, McNamee, etc) coming off the bike. I'm confident he can get that 10 minutes, but his legs will be cooked. Alternatively, if he bikes more responsibly he could come out of T2 with a 5-6 minute lead. In that case a 2:50 might get him on the podium (which he just ran at IM Australia), but he'd need to be closer to 2:45 to win. Seems like a lot to ask.
    AaronWebsteyellsworth53t


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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    It has to be windy this year. It's been too calm for too many years in a row. I think he needs 10-11 minutes to win and he could have 12-15 if the conditions are right.
    James Langeellsworth53t
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    AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers
    bbculp said:

    It has to be windy this year. It's been too calm for too many years in a row.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

    Sanders FTW! McMahon 2nd!
    James LangeMartin
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Sanders has to qualify first.
    James LangeAaronWebsteyMattMartinslickfins_Ryan
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    James LangeJames Lange Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    @bbculp Wurf up 15 minutes and exhausted would make for a very compelling run. I imagine he'd be loosing 20-30 seconds a mile to the fastest runners.
    AaronWebsteyMartinbbculp


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    AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers
    bbculp said:

    Sanders has to qualify first.

    Sworry. I don't really think he's going to win. Wurf looks pretty freaking strong.

    What about that 27 year old kid who just won Texas? Nilsson I think? Any shot at a podium?
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    KHilgendorfKHilgendorf Member, Rooster Endurance Member, POTM
    Personally, I think wurf and starky work together and get 18 minutes on the runner train after they all get blocking penalties. Wurf then holds on for the win while starky fades somewhere between 5 and 15.
    AaronWebsteyMattbbculpJohns622
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    MattMatt Member, Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member
    Wurf > Starky is a given, but not for the win. He won't pull off a Stadler.
    AaronWebstey
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    PevashishDaulPevashishDaul Member, POTM
    With the density of the current field plus + draft zones its not happening.

    On a very windy day, something that hasn’t been seen since 2004, maybe he gets 3rd. That’s the best he’ll do. He’s also turning 36 in August. He doesn’t have a lot of time left.
    MattMartinAaronWebstey
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    PevashishDaulPevashishDaul Member, POTM
    This thread gives me the (slow)twitchies. I believe i have an erection.
    AaronWebsteybbculpKenElPescadoPelado
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member

    bbculp said:

    It has to be windy this year. It's been too calm for too many years in a row.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_averages

    Sanders FTW! McMahon 2nd!
    Easy there, homer.
    AaronWebsteyTad_MKenElPescadoPelado
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member

    @bbculp Wurf up 15 minutes and exhausted would make for a very compelling run. I imagine he'd be loosing 20-30 seconds a mile to the fastest runners.

    I think he needs 20 minutes. Kona is a draft fest, though, and we know that team tactics/deals are being made.

    It'll never happen, though I wish it would.

    I believe McNamee has preemptively been awarded 3rd place again for this year, and a small statue of Fernanda Keller* for his efforts, so Wurf would have to be 2nd to be on the podium.

    *To whoever ends up my Secret Santa - please take note that I would also like a small statue of Fernanda Keller.

    AaronWebsteyPevashishDaulTad_Mkjrunninslickfins_Ryan
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    I think it’s too hot in Kona for Wurf to run well there.

    Pretty weak field at Ironman Australia, is this sport dead yet?
    MartinbbculpPevashishDaulTad_MMatt
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    James LangeJames Lange Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Martin said:

    *To whoever ends up my Secret Santa - please take note that I would also like a small statue of Fernanda Keller.

    Anything is a dildo if you're brave enough.
    bbculpPevashishDaulTad_MAaronWebsteykjrunninMartinwchevronCraig_DMatt


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    PevashishDaulPevashishDaul Member, POTM
    Maybe the most insightful statement of all time.
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Hopefully we get a hot day in Frankfurt so we see how Cam can hang on with a bunch of German gazelles running him down. And hopefully said German gazelles are actually racing.

    Will also be interesting to see if Sebi tries to hang with Cam like he did in Roth last year. He said after that race that it was one of the most painful rides of his life and he's not sure he'd try to hang with Cam again. It almost cost him the win.

    Lastly, shout out to Cam for electing to race against the best in Frankfurt even though he's locked up his Kona spot like 12 times over. He knows he needs experience racing against these guys if he's ever going to beat them in Kona.
    Tad_MAaronWebstey
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Matt said:

    Wurf > Starky is a given, but not for the win. He won't pull off a Stadler.

    Cam is better across all 3 disciplines than Stadler ever was. Significantly, in fact. The issue for Cam is the density of talent in the men's field nowadays. Everyone said Normann wouldn't win because a 2:55 marathon wasn't good enough, and he proved them wrong twice. Cam just needs to figure out how hard he has to ride to win with a 2:50 marathon. I think having a much stronger Starky out there this year is going to make a huge difference.
    AaronWebsteyMartinMattJames Lange
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    @bbculp I’m curious why are you such a Wurf fanboy?

    Ex-pro cyclist hanging out with Froome is enough for me to write him off.
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    @Granpa Chook It took me a while and a lot of conversations with Cam regarding his involvement with Team Sky to come around. I'm not going to just assume he's dirty because he does the occasional ride with Froome or Thomas when they're in the same place. I think it's a bad look for Cam, and I've told him that repeatedly.

    I'm a fan of the way he races; same reason I'm a fan of Starky. There's a lot of cheating that goes on in the pack in Kona and the team tactics last year with Drietz and Lange was absolute bullshit. I'm a fan of the guys who do the exact opposite.
    MartinAaronWebsteyJames LangeTad_M
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    He's also hilarious. I texted him the other day that he needs to convince Starky to switch to the Vaporflys and his response was, "I don't think they help with marching."

    That's fucking funny.
    kjrunninMartinAaronWebsteyCraig_DPevashishDaulMattJennifer PostJames LangeTad_M
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    He does bring the shits and giggles to triathlon - doesn't take himself seriously outside of start to finish of races.
    Tad_M
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member

    He does bring the shits and giggles to triathlon - doesn't take himself seriously outside of start to finish of races.

    Exactly. After rowing in the Olympics and riding on the UCI circuit, he's able to find the humor in how ridiculous triathlon is...isn't that the point of this forum?
    MartinTad_MJames LangeCraig_DMatt
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    Tad_MTad_M Member, Rooster Endurance Member, Level 2 Supporter, POTM
    I think Cam is a designated Roost favourite like Starky for all those reasons.
    I hope starky gets some vaporflys and paints them and his socks up like combat boots.
    James LangebbculpAaronWebsteyCraig_DJohns622
    visit Michigan Aug. 1-4 - The Sworry Trials
    https://www.facebook.com/The-Sworry-Trials-2194532304133322/
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    James LangeJames Lange Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Triathlon always seemed pretty reasonable until I started training for an Ironman.
    kjrunninAaronWebsteyCraig_DJohns622


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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    bbculp said:

    He's also hilarious. I texted him the other day that he needs to convince Starky to switch to the Vaporflys and his response was, "I don't think they help with marching."

    That's fucking funny.

    I remember a Starky quote from the IM Texas pro meeting when he came back from his accident, to effect of "What side of the road do you want me to walk on for the marathon?"

    These two guys are at the top of my list of pros I would invite to a BBQ. Even if they don't win Kona, I hope they blow up the race.
    bbculpPevashishDaulJames LangeAaronWebsteyCraig_D
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    KHilgendorfKHilgendorf Member, Rooster Endurance Member, POTM
    bbculp said:

    He does bring the shits and giggles to triathlon - doesn't take himself seriously outside of start to finish of races.

    Exactly. After rowing in the Olympics and riding on the UCI circuit, he's able to find the humor in how ridiculous triathlon is...isn't that the point of this forum?
    I thought the point of this forum was reciprocal oral sex jokes.
    James LangebbculpwchevronMartinAaronWebsteyTad_MCraig_DMatt
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    AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers

    bbculp said:

    He does bring the shits and giggles to triathlon - doesn't take himself seriously outside of start to finish of races.

    Exactly. After rowing in the Olympics and riding on the UCI circuit, he's able to find the humor in how ridiculous triathlon is...isn't that the point of this forum?
    I thought the point of this forum was reciprocal oral sex jokes.
    Admin note: this forum has many points (while paradoxically remaining completely pointless), and these are two of them.
    Tad_MMartinCraig_DPevashishDaul
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    MattMatt Member, Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member
    "Bag of Dicks. Get yer Bag of Dicks!"
    AaronWebsteyCraig_D
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    bbculp said:

    He does bring the shits and giggles to triathlon - doesn't take himself seriously outside of start to finish of races.

    Exactly. After rowing in the Olympics and riding on the UCI circuit, he's able to find the humor in how ridiculous triathlon is...isn't that the point of this forum?
    Rowing is a particularly stupid sport, and one that has occupied most of my sporting life, as well as quite a deal of my professional life.

    Seriously: we sit down and go backwards as quickly as possible, with an attempt to NOT look where one is going, only where we’ve been.

    It’s nearly as bad as swimming, which produces the only people on earth who think that a data screen on a rowing ergometer is interesting.

    Still love it though.
    M_WareJohns622bbculpMartinAaronWebsteyJames LangeMattTad_MCraig_D
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    wchevronwchevron Member, POTM
    My daughter just switched from swimming to rowing last year. As a parent, I always thought a swim meet was the most boring thing to watch. Then I went to my first rowing regatta.

    Drove 3 hours to a regatta last weekend. 10 minutes before we reach the race, we get a call it's too windy, race was cancelled. Luckily we had another race the next day. Couple people didn't and turned around and went home. I can't wait until she goes to college.
    James LangekjrunninAaronWebsteyMattbbculpCraig_DMartinJohns622

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