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70.3 World Champs + TPS - The Gretzky Episode (#99)

AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers
edited August 31 in Main
Edit: TPS 99 has dropped. Forget my stupid picks and listen. Then discuss.

http://thetriathlonpreviewshow.libsyn.com

I'm going to be so bold as to make my calls BEFORE listening to @EmilyCocks and @Zach Miller on the TPS. So I'll probably be wrong.

Men: Gomez, Currie, Kanute, Frodo, Brownlee. Top 10 rounded out by Appo, Weiss, Raelert, Von Berg, and Wild.

Women: Ryf by 5+ minutes, Federiksen, True, Findlay, Wurtele. Top 10 rounded out by Salthouse, Blatchford, Kaye, Seymour, and Charles. Huetthaler might be in there somewhere but who cares.


These are some strong fields!


MattGranpa ChookfyrehaarpeteMartinCraig_D
«13

Comments

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    AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers
    So it looks like Alicia, Paula, Helle, and Liz aren't racing. I'm changing my women to:

    Ryf, True, Pallant, Wurtele, Charles.

    Thanks to @laurenbrandon for doing exactly as I asked and pointing out how dumb my picks were :)
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    RashRash Member
    I'm curious if Gomez will be a little cooked and conservative with his first Kona crack coming up. If tapered and targeting this race I would have him as the winner even without knowing the course at all, but I feel like his objective this season is to have a good result in his first Kona attempt. A lot of the other guys are in the same boat (not Kanute) though so perhaps they will all have equal limitations.
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    AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers
    Are you calling Kanute to upset Gomez?? Isn't that a little ... you know
    Rash said:

    I'm curious if Gomez will be a little cooked and conservative with his first Kona crack coming up. If tapered and targeting this race I would have him as the winner even without knowing the course at all, but I feel like his objective this season is to have a good result in his first Kona attempt. A lot of the other guys are in the same boat (not Kanute) though so perhaps they will all have equal limitations.

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    Kelly O'MaraKelly O'Mara Member, Pro Triathlete
    lucy charles in 43rd?? that's pretty dumb
    AaronWebsteyMartin
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    @AaronWebstey I like your boldness before the preview show. You are a bigger man than I.

    I am very excited for this race. The bike course doesn't seem very hilly so it will favor the fast runners. It is always hard to tell if Alistair is healthy or somewhat injured. He raced the Euro champs and looked ok until the run but you never know with him.

    Gomez, Frodeno, are going to be flying. Even if they are tired for Kona I think their "pretty good" is better than everyone else.

    It will be interesting to see how Brownlee, Kanute, Currie and Appleton do. I guess no Kienle, he is doing Challenge Walschee, which is disappointing but understandable. One's achilles can only take so much. On the women's side I'll be rooting for Wurtele, and True to do well. It will be interesting to see what Pallant, Haug and Hauschildt do. Also Jennie Seymour racing at home.

    Not gonna talk about the actual dopers/ suspected dopers/ not normal people.
    AaronWebsteyfyrehaar
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    AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers

    lucy charles in 43rd?? that's pretty dumb

    How are these start lists ordered?
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    MattMatt Member, Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member
    Qualifying Points?
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    petepete Member
    edited August 30
    I can't think of an A race Brownlee has lined up for without dominating. I think he has the short course speed Gomez has had to lose for 140.6 racing, so for me Alistair is the man to beat. I adore the way Kanute races, but I don't think lightning strikes twice.
    1. Alistair Brownlee
    2. Jan Frodeno
    3. Javier Gomez
    4. Braden Currie
    5. Ben Kanute

    Ryf does single leg drills on the bike and wins without breaking 110bpm. But Anne Haug is going to run through the field.

    1. Daniela Ryf
    2. Anne Haug
    3. Lucy Charles
    4. Sarah True
    5. Emma Pallant
    AaronWebsteyJames Lange
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    MattMatt Member, Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member
    pete said:

    I can't think of an A race Brownlee has lined up for without dominating.

    DNF'ed 2017 Challenge Samorin (aka 'The Championship')'
    Martin
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    petepete Member
    Matt said:

    pete said:

    I can't think of an A race Brownlee has lined up for without dominating.

    DNF'ed 2017 Challenge Samorin (aka 'The Championship')'
    He dismantled the field at St George four weeks before that, and then dominated a week later at ITU Leeds. It may have had "Championship" in the name, but I don't think it was on Alistair's radar until they dangled an appearance fee in front of him. I'm thinking Samorin was a training day.
    AaronWebsteyMatt
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Matt said:

    pete said:

    I can't think of an A race Brownlee has lined up for without dominating.

    DNF'ed 2017 Challenge Samorin (aka 'The Championship')'
    Rio.
    Matt
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    AaronWebsteyAaronWebstey Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member, Rooster Endurance Officers
    Pedantry aside, I think @pete makes a good point. :)
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Could we see a run in the 1:07-1:08 range on this course? Brownlee.

    I hope Charles and Haug can make a race of it, but if Ryf is racing, Ryf will win.
    AaronWebstey
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    Oh so a double gold medallist is pretty good huh? :)

    He is hard to predict because he often turns out amazing performances coming off of injury but Brownlee didn't look like his best self at the Euro champs (3 weeks ago). He won a small 70.3 in China in April, he didn't look great at the Commonwealth games, Dubai 70.3 in March was pretty good on a short course. Basically he looked great last year at WTS Leeds, but even then won it on the bike. Since then he's had surgery, and more injuries. I think Frodeno and Gomez are much safer bets right now, Gomez especially. If you think he's lost "speed" you are crazy.

    AaronWebsteyMattpeteMartin
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    RashRash Member
    Horses for courses - that bike course set up Kanute last year. No shot this year in my opinion but I would happily be wrong in this case.
    Granpa Chook
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    @Rash I think so too, at least for a podium, but he will do well. Not enough big hills early for a good swimmer like Kanute to capitalize. There isn't much elevation gain at all. It is a very windy place though, and his swim will put him up there with Frodeno and Gomez so he'll be in the mix. But on this course there are probably going to be fresh runners doing 1:10 chasing him down, like Wild and Reiderer.

    Ben Ka-Nu-Te will beat those schmucks though.
    AaronWebstey
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    edited August 30
    I'm just happy Dingman was able to secure enough funds to vacation in South Africa this weekend.
    James Langeidking90
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Also, Brownlee and Ryf will win and neither race will be close.
    AaronWebsteyJames Lange
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    Zach MillerZach Miller Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    bbculp said:

    Also, Brownlee and Ryf will win and neither race will be close.

    Bold
    MartinAaronWebstey
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    EmilyCocksEmilyCocks Member, Pro Triathlete
    Brownlee is a 50/50 shot. No idea if his run is shit or good. And I think if Frodeno is on form he can show Brownlee what's up.
    AaronWebsteybalsdorfMattGranpa Chook
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    Yeah Brownlee is either unstoppable or shit (with some nice excuse). And while he hasn't lost an ironman brand 70.3, he DNF'd The Challenge Championship.

    I think Frodo will win, he is on a mission this year. Womens side, Lucy Charles will win the "Non-Ryf Category".
    AaronWebstey
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Brownlee by at least 90 seconds.
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    MattMatt Member, Administrator, Rooster Endurance Member
    Will it be hot?
    How much as Ali raced since his hip surgery?
    How much did Gomez work on getting a more aero position?
    Martin
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    High 60s and rain on Sunday morning. Nevermind, Brownlee by 90 minutes.
    James LangeGranpa ChookpeteMartinAaronWebstey
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    And I'll take Haug to win the non-Ryf category.
    MartinAaronWebstey
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    EmilyCocksEmilyCocks Member, Pro Triathlete
    bold predictions by @bbculp for brownlee.....

    Jan was delayed one day in arriving in PE. What's up with that? Drama? He hiding something? We shall see.

    Charles in the non-Ryf category. 16:45 5k last weekend. She has killer swim/bike and can back up a great run.
    Granpa ChookbbculpAaronWebstey
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    bbculpbbculp Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    Haug regularly ran 16 flat - 16:30 off the bike in ITU. Lucy's swim matters less at 70.3 than any other distance.

    Hopefully I'm wrong. I'm hoping Ryf has a mechanical and Lucy takes the win.
    AaronWebstey
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    MartinMartin Member, Rooster Endurance Member
    edited August 31
    bbculp said:

    Haug regularly ran 16 flat - 16:30 off the bike in ITU. Lucy's swim matters less at 70.3 than any other distance.

    Hopefully I'm wrong. I'm hoping Ryf has a mechanical and Lucy takes the win.

    To bad they are racing on separate days. Would be interesting to see where Ryf stacks up against the men.
    EmilyCocksAaronWebstey

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