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Half Marathon Time/Pacing Help

So I just remembered I signed up for a (stupid) half marathon which is 4-5 weeks away. I have run a total of 1 almost 2 years ago I think. I don't really do many run races so don't have any relevant stand alone times to go off of. I think my last off the bike 5k was 19:20 and I ran about a 7 min/mile pace at my last "oly" a few weeks ago. That 7 min/mile pace was not redlining until the last stupid hill - could have likely gone a little faster if I were better motivated. My longest run of the year is probably 8-9 miles and when healthy/wife healthy enough (maybe 60% of the year) I have put in about 25 mpw.

So pulling a number out of thin air, is a sub 1:30 possible? I looked at some calculators but those are based off stand alone times and obviously assume proper training for the distance which is not going to be me. At the end of the day, I will probably pick a goal time and go for it from the gun. I don't mind if I crash and burn, but want to be somewhat realistic about it. Any thoughts/input appreciated.

Comments

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    edited September 13
    What's the course look like?

    McMillan says your 19:20 equates to a 1:29:31.
    MamaCheetah
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    You'll go 1:37:10 exactly.
    MamaCheetah
    ______


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    1:30:11.

    Followed by many months of asking yourself if you could have run every mile just 1 second faster. And yes. Yes, of course you could. But you didn't.
    balsdorfAaronWebsteyCraig DMartinMattHSeeley14MamaCheetahfyrehaar

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    @Matt Course is downhill (my knees will hate it). Weather in Oct is unpredictable. Last year they had people overheating and in years past it was apparently freezing. Wind will most likely be an issue for parts of the course.



    Course Map

    As for McMillian, I had looked at that. Of course that's not a stand alone 5k time, however I also don't do many long runs. I suppose 1:30 is not entirely crazy and might be as good a guess as any.
    MattMamaCheetah
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    I should clarify, I am hoping to develop a target finish time/pace - not looking for the best guess at what I will finish in. You are free to speculate and we can see who gets closest - winner gets a thumbs up?
    AaronWebstey
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    This is the Roost - you get what we feel like giving you, not what you ask for! ;)

    Sounds pretty reasonable to me. Go for 1:30. My guess is 1:28:69.
    kjrunninsimonsen77AlexSKenElPescadoPelado
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    @AaronWebstey That's why I said "hoping"! I knew what I was getting myself into.
    AaronWebstey
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    1:28:70 Have a great race @Rash !


    M_WareAaronWebsteyKenElPescadoPeladokjrunninMamaCheetahCraig D

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    scotty said:

    You'll go 1:37:10 exactly.

    Are we using Price is Right rules? Can't overbid? Hadn't seen the course profile. Changing my estimate to 1:33:41.
    MamaCheetah
    ______


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    Can you use Heelys for the downhill section? That will affect my guess.
    KenElPescadoPeladoAaronWebsteyRashCraig D
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    @Martin I am taking your prediction as a suggestion. I am giving it serious thought! Based on the way this year has gone, you might have picked a winner.
    KenElPescadoPelado
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    Do you wear a HR monitor ? If so go zone 2 for 2 miles, zone 3 for 8 miles, then balls to the wall for the rest.
    Rash
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    edited September 15
    I wear one, but considering I have yet to ever officially figure out my zones I am not sure why. I have an idea of where my zones are give or take 10 bpm - another way of confirming I don't know my zones. I was just going to set a ceiling of around 160-165 for the first 9-10 miles then see what, if anything, is left. That's about 5 beats higher than where I sit for an Oly bike leg and somewhere close to tempo range (maybe).

    Bottom line - this is all going to be a huge guessing game. Your guesses are likely better than mine.
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    Start at 6:50 pace. Then keep running that until you either slow down or feel you can speed up. That average gets you in at 1:29:35. Don't think about HR. It will creep up over the course of the run at the same pace, so if you try to peg it at 165, you'll start out faster and fade.
    RashTad_Machrowiczmbrekk44Craig DRobert RankinAaronWebsteybalsdorf
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    If you ran a tempo pace 42 off the bike in an Olympic, I think it’s very possible you could go under 1:30 for an open half.

    I run with a HRM but don’t look at it while racing at all.
    Rashmbrekk44AaronWebstey

    Fattest BQ on record--- *allegedly
    2016 (and last) Rev3 Cedar Point champ- don't google the time though
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    Wasn't going to run by my HR, was just going to set a cap for the first 9-10 miles, however I think I will go with pace. I don't ever really look at my HR while racing for purposes of keeping an average HR, I just use it as a limit guide. For a sprint I would set a cap at 167 on the bike, however if I was feeling good and I went over that I would ultimately ignore it. It just turns out that I usually end up with an average HR in the 160-165 range on bike splits (spring/oly).

    I'll use your strategy @KHilgendorf and see what happens.

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    I like this little tool for educated guesses pacing advice. I seems to indicate that yes, sub 1:30 is possible.

    http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/racepaces/rp?metres=10000&hr=0&min=42&sec=0&age=30&gender=M&Submit=Calculate
    Rash
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    @fyrehaar Not once my actual age is plugged in!
    fyrehaarkjrunnin
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    BTW - All of this is just a ploy to have @EmilyCocks take pity on my ignorance and agree to coach me pro bono as the first ever athlete sponsored by the "The Triathlon Preview Show". I am sure she prefers athletes who think all workouts are too hard.
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    Just go as hard as you can for as long as you can. You want to "bank time" in the beginning. :)
    fyrehaarMattMamaCheetahsimonsen77mbrekk44Craig Dkjrunnin
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    @Rash what can you offer me in exchange for sponsorship? Marketing? more downloads?

    as for your half marathon--don't go out with all the idiots who sprint off the line :20 under what they are aiming to hold.

    Warm up into the race just like you would any run. The first few miles should feel like you are holding back slightly.
    fyrehaarRashGranpa Chook
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    So much overthinking and math. Just effing run.

    N=1 and from a running background, so take this with a grain of salt. When I'm in sub-20 off the bike shape (it's been a while), my open half is usually in the 1:20s. You don't really need more volume, just do a couple of quality interval/tempo sessions a week. Price-is-right prediction is 1:25:02.
    RashMattGranpa Chookmbrekk44AaronWebstey
    Resident Genius.
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    @EmilyCocks All I can offer is a boatload of disappointment. If you need me to back up that offer, I will put you in touch with my wife, parents and/or inlaws. :)
    MamaCheetahkjrunninwchevron

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