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Triathlon Preview Show 71 - 70.3 Worlds

edited September 6 in Main
It's Javi's to lose.

I like the love for Kanute and would love to see Merica on the top step, however for every reason you think Kanute has a shot, remember Javi is better at both swimming and biking than Kanute (at least in the ITU circuit). While Kanute has shown some class at recent 70.3 races, Javi beat Jan for a world championship at the 70.3 distance outrunning Jan by over a minute only one week off of clinching his fourth ITU World Championship. Javi has more 70.3 wins to his name than Kanute has finishes (I am guessing here as I don't know how many Kanute has done). All of these wins came when his focus was solely ITU Sprint/Oly distance racing.

As for questions about his bike, remember this is a pseudo draft legal race. If you don't believe me, place your ear to the ground - you can probably still hear Sander's tears falling somewhere talking about it. All Javi has to do is get over the hill and get on the train which his swim will allow - compared to an ITU swim this will just be a warm up even with the current issues. If someone from the front pack goes balls out on the bike and gets a significant gap, they will likely pay for that on the run. By the time Sebi rolls through (he may be further back if the currents are as reported), it may be tough to build much of a gap before T2.

When it comes to the run, Javi is world class. Maybe 2 or 3 guys in the world that can run better than him in triathlon (none of whom will be at the race) and he still manages to beat them often enough to rack up multiple world championships. I realize this is over a much longer distance, but I just don't see him being outrun by anyone if he is having a good day. Watching him run at Hi-Vee was unreal - he casually coasted home for the win with a 29 min run split. In most of the photos of him running, neither foot is within an inch of the ground - he was literally flying!

***I must disclose, this weekend I looked into Javi's dark brown eyes in Des Moines and contemplated leaving my family to devote my life to making him love me. He is another level of human definitely not made from the same bowl of jello and shame I came from (at least I am taller!). I asked him to to take my son and raise him as his own, to which he replied, "No". I don't speak Spanish, but I assume it meant he is considering it.
balsdorfMattsimonsen77AaronWebsteyM_WareCraig DGranpa Chookidking90maggieruTad_Machrowicz
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Comments

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    Javier lost 4 minutes to Kienle and Frodeno in Zell Am See (6 minutes to Dreitz) when he got 3rd in 2015. Sebi out ran him (not by much but still).

    If the hill separates everyone it might not be the draft train it was last year. There is a flat section at the end and we could see everyone regroup and playing into the "true" runners hands (or feet).

    I just don't think it is a gimme for Javier, he will be tested. Especially by the men who are true 70.3 athletes and can TT their asses off for 90k (like Appleton).

    And, if it becomes semi draft legal than my pick of Don is a good one b/c he is good at that ;)

    Fairly certain that Des Moines run was short--everyone's times looked fast for a true 10k. Same with bike--4 out of 5 women at 57 minutes for 40k?? No.
    AaronWebsteyRashCraig DGranpa Chook
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    @EmilyCocks How dare you imply the course was short at Des Moines - My sub 1 hr 40k on a front flat tire with limited gearing was 100% legit! The bike and run were short, still Javi was out for a training day and smashed the 15 or so male "pro's" that were there hoping for a little pay day (only one I recognized was Collington). He was 45 seconds clear of everyone else going into T1 and ran over 2 minutes faster than all but one who was over 40 seconds slower.

    I don't think it's a gimmie, but do think he is the favorite. That hill could break up the bike, but I think many will fight to keep it a pack to stay away from Kienle for as long as possible and make it a foot race. If I am not mistaken, the climbing in Zell Am See was much more significant (15K at 5%) and the descent was also a factor as it was somewhat technical and very fast.

    Again, Javi has never focused on or specifically trained for 70.3. In 2015 he raced 70.3 Worlds as part of a 3 weekend in a row race schedule where he won ITU Stockholm, took 3rd at 70.3 Worlds, then second at ITU Edmonton on his way to his third consecutive ITU World Championship 2 weeks later in Chicago. His focus was not on that race and he still was on the podium. This year his focus has been this race - I have to think that's bad news for everyone else.

    Granpa ChookTad_MachrowiczM_Ware
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    I hate making predictions but I love talking shit about other people's predictions! The show was great (as always). It was nice to hear some people who care about professional triathlon.

    I agree with @Rash , it's gotta be Gomez here. Gomez or Kienle. I think Reed, Appleton, Kanute will be up there but not quite in contention for the win.

    On the women's side I'll be rooting for anybody to beat Lawrence and Ryf. Please! I think it's wide open after that. Rooting for Heather Wurtele, Sarah True, Kim Morrison, Barb Riveros.

    Racing is so great. The course looks great, tough swim course, tough bike course and even some hills on the run. Who is going to show up and perform? Who is going to get blown back and make excuses? I am calling dibs on the #1 excuse being "I am preparing for Kona".
    RashEmilyCocksAaronWebsteymaggieruCraig DTad_Machrowicz
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    I saw a picture of Reed today...he has been sick and quite honestly, looked like shit. Maybe the lighting was bad at the press conference...

    Reed will be nowhere. He is already setting up his tri excuses.

    I almost don't want it to be Gomez b/c everyone is all "hot for Gomez."

    Please remember, Appleton has been biking like a mad man and even biked 1 min FASTER THAN Starky in Racine.

    Gomez may come back on the run but I still hang on to my prediction that he will be dropped on the bike.
    Granpa ChookRashCraig DTad_Machrowicz
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    edited September 7
    and, this is why we do the show, for discussion. It's fun.

    I chatted more with Sara Gross and Alyssa Godesky on the Ironwomen podcast as well. Just dropped today. Check it out if you want more stuff (on the women's side).
    Granpa ChookAaronWebsteyRashM_WareCraig D
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    But Gomez will outswim Appo, so the bike deficit won't be too bad for 21k
    Granpa ChookRashTad_Machrowicz
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    Jesse Thomas was saying that the swim is net upcurrent, but he wasn't sure if they were going to change the current to lessen it. He also said it's the hardest bike course he's done, reminiscent of Zell-am-see in 2015 but not as technical a descent after the climb.
    Rash
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    I can go with Appo as a dark horse, but not a favorite. I may have missed it, but don't think he has very many "big race" wins. He won a couple this year, but not in a field like this. He did out bike a RECOVERING Starky at a duathlon in Racine - he even outran Reed there by 3 seconds for what that's worth. I can see Javi getting beat by a few in the field, but Appo would have to be somewhat of a surprise (to most but @EmilyCocks who can rub our faces in it forever!).

    If Jesse is right about the bike being that hard, then I think the chance that Javi loses contact on the bike obviously goes up - I was thinking outside of that initial climb it wasn't that bad. Frodo and Drietz did a lot of damage on the descent in Zell Am See. If they keep the swim upstream, then the gap to Keinle should be larger. I guess they will just have to race this thing to find out!

    You are right though - this stuff is fun to talk about and that's why I really like your show. Sets up a fun discussion for the few of us who really like to follow and hear about the pro's in our sport.

    Now I have to start formulating my excuses for my pick when Gomez is 18 minutes behind in T2 and 10 spots off the podium.
    Tad_Machrowicz
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    You dummies. Gomez is going to win by minutes, not seconds.
    RashGranpa Chookidking90Jennifer PostKenElPescadoPelado
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    yeah, Starky was riding pretty shitty while recovering...what did he split at IM Texas??? A 4:01. So I am thinking he was pretty fit by July.

    Appo was 5th last year so that's a solid performance on a big stage.

    Gomez certainly has a very good shot. And I know he rides well in those ITU races. But, that's a different type of riding. The riding in 70.3 has taken a big step up, even since 2014-15.

    I sincerely doubt Gomez will be 10 spots off the podium :)
    RashAaronWebstey
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    edited September 8
    Anything within 2 years of being struck and dragged down the road by a truck is still recovery in my mind - he is just really fast at 90%!

    Appo would have been 6th if Javi were there last year. :)
    EmilyCocks
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    edited September 8
    Enough about this pro talk. @Zach Miller , what are your predictions for the Male 25-29 AG? And is your wife willing to be seen with you in public in your race kit?
    Craig DRashEmilyCocksAaronWebsteyTad_MachrowiczKelly O'Mara
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    @balsdorf it will be a TRS/Baucco sweep on the 25-29 podium!

    wife doesn't want to comment about the speedo
    Craig DRashEmilyCocksbalsdorfAaronWebstey
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    For further potential discussion - Timothy Carlson's predictions (for what they are worth considering he has Heather Jackson in 4th):

    1. Daniela Ryf
    2. Holly Lawrence
    3. Sarah Crowley
    4. Heather Jackson (not racing)
    5. Annabel Luxford
    6. Jeanni Seymour
    7. Helle Frederiksen
    8. Heather Wurtele
    9. Melissa Hauschildt
    10. Sarah True

    1. Javier Gomez
    2. Sebastian Kienle
    3. Tim Don
    4. Michael Raelert
    5. Time Reed
    6. Sam Appleton
    7. Mauricio Mendez
    8. Ben Kanute
    9. Tyler Butterfield
    10. Timothy O’Donnell

    Seems like the women's side is likely a two horse race, however if that's the case I hope they give us a two woman showdown similar to the great race from Kienle and Reed last year.

    I think the men's race is much more open and hope to see young Mendez mixing it up.

    @Zach Miller and @balsdorf - I assume the M25-29 predictions will be out shortly for discussion.
    AaronWebsteyTad_Machrowicz
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    +1 on Mendez, the guy is a young yes, but you know what, everyone is talking about tough bike, hilly run, tough swim... tougher than XTERRA? I think the course really plays into his hands.
    RashAaronWebstey
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    Crowley is not racing. Neither is Michael Raelert or Tim O'Donnell.
    RashAaronWebstey
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    edited September 8
    They need to listen to the TPS and follow the TPS on Facebook!

    ETA - He at least figured out Heather Jackson and removed her, but Raelert and TO remain on his list.
    AaronWebstey
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    Thanks @EmilyCocks and @Zach Miller for adding a ton to the excitement and making this cool to watch. WATCH, I can't believe it. I'm going old school and staring at the blog scroll. It's like those old curmudgeons arguing that listening to baseball on a transistor radio on the porch is way better than watching on TV.
    RashAaronWebsteyEmilyCocksM_Ware

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    Watching the women's race - that hill is much more significant than I thought. Should make tomorrow fun. Hope Helle can hang on for a strong run and podium.
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    Wonder if Amberger missed an opportunity not racing this thing.
    Granpa Chook
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    edited September 9
    Holly Lawrence made it back up to 2nd place (3:36 back), then dropped out. "I just didn't have it, today. Even from the swim, I'm just feeling so tired, my legs are dead."
    Jennifer PostRash
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    Holly looked really thin in all her IG posts. That is either really good or really bad.
    RashM_WareAaronWebstey
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    Holly looked really thin in all her IG posts. That is either really good or really bad.

    Thanks for this comment. I was wondering who Jodie was talking about.
    M_WareAaronWebstey
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    Two things I just can't forget about today. 1. Lawrence's Bizarre DNF 2. Race won by an alleged doper, coached by an admitted pedophile, and in victory hugged alleged human rights abuser and then finishes it off by shamelessly spraying sponsor's crappy energy drink. Such a bad look for women in sport.
    Granpa ChookbalsdorfM_WareAaronWebsteyscotty
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    Looked like a really tough/awesome course. Heather Wurtele said it was even harder than St George. Hopefully they bring it back there in 2019. Despite Lovato doing his best to amateur-ize the shit out of it, the coverage benefited from having a solo women's race, it was... professional looking! Usually the women's race gets fuck-all for coverage, only like the last bit of the run after the men's race is done. The split screen of Pallant and Ryf running was great.

    I was rooting so hard for Pallant to run Ryf down. Did Lawrence forget her inhaler or something?

    and Sarah True!? My hero. I'm going to go read her sister's story in the recent New Yorker.
    RashCraig DM_WareAaronWebsteyTad_Machrowicz
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    Sarah True was great. Was glad to see her do so well.
    Jennifer PostGranpa ChookM_WareAaronWebsteyTad_Machrowicz
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    Can someone explain to me why the start lists are so much smaller than the qualify lists? Way take the spot if you're not going to do it? And why race a different half the same weekend, if you qualified but didn't want to race?
    maggieruCraig D
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    And yeah yeah I can come up with reasons but I still think it's dumb and also messed up to take a spot and then be like eh, nevermind.

    Can someone explain to me why the start lists are so much smaller than the qualify lists? Way take the spot if you're not going to do it? And why race a different half the same weekend, if you qualified but didn't want to race?

    AaronWebsteyM_Waremaggieru

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