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Poll: how will Ali B do at Long Course this year?

edited February 15 in Main
Didn't want to hijack @Martin 's thread on Ali joining Bahrain 13, but interested in how you think he'll do this year. Anyone know his racing plans?


Photo Credit: International Triathlon Union / Delly Carr :: 2016 Rio de Janeiro Olympic Games
  1. How well will Ali Brownlee do at Long Course racing this year?35 votes
    1. Total destruction. Wins everything he enters, crushes 70.3 worlds.
      40.00%
    2. Some growing pains, but solid performances and several podiums.
      37.14%
    3. Struggles to make top 5s - a 'flop' for someone of his calibre
        8.57%
    4. Something else (although I doubt he'll do worse than option #3)
      14.29%

Comments

  • Options
    My answer is predicated on how good his chemistry is callibrated.
    AaronWebsteyGasBombbalsdorfHensatcet5504KenElPescadoPelado
  • Options
    If he sticks to 70.3, he rules the world. Fast swim, strong bike, crazy run speed - he's the total package for 70.3. If he goes 140.6, I'm not sure he has the 'problem solving experience' to dominate year one. It's possible he's on the bench with an injury.

    It's too bad there are so many damn races. The pro pools are so diluted at most events that we don't get to see the real top guys fight it out very often, and that includes 70.3 WC. WTC should require all pros ranked in the top 25 or 30 at 70.3 to show up and race the 70.3 world champs, or they sit out Kona.
    AaronWebsteyGasBombMamaCheetah
  • Options
    I went with "something else". My crystal ball shows him winning his first 70.3 going away and then struggling with injuries the rest of the season with a bunch of DNS or DNF results. Dude is a serious talent but also a delicate flower. I still think Jonny is the Brownlee who will have the most long course success.
    AaronWebsteyneil5youngbalsdorfBrent_Rmbrekk44MamaCheetahrangamelTad_Machrowiczfyrehaar

    Clay Richard Gasway
    King of all Mediocrity
  • Options
    edited February 15
    Frodeno had some struggles the first year of 70.3--did not have much patience and would take the first mile of the run out like it was an ITU race and then blow. Brownlee could do the same b/c he is such an aggressive racer. Once he gets it right and stays injury free (the toe running could be tough with more mileage) he will kill it.
    AaronWebsteyMamaCheetah
  • Options
    Depends on the heat. Gomez will beat AB
    AaronWebsteymbrekk44MamaCheetahMartin
  • Options
    Everyone comments on how his "toe" running won't translate to higher mileage. It may not work as well in long course, however I doubt he will actually be doing higher mileage than he is already doing in training and will likely be doing that mileage slower (once he moves full time to long course). I would bet he is already at 50-60 miles a week with a ton of speed work in there. Once he fully commits to long course (whenever that will be), he will cut out much of the higher speed/higher risk run training.
    AaronWebsteyGasBombMamaCheetah
  • Options
    He's going to need to work on his position (Abu Dhabi 2014)


    but not as much as Javier (70.3 Dubai 2017)


    GasBombMamaCheetahAaronWebstey
  • Options
    Haha - those two pics sum up one thing I noticed in the Island House Tri pictures - ITU athletes have shocking positions on TT bikes... the only one who actually look like a pro what Murray - the rest looked like some age group hack who hadn't even bothered with a bike fit (i.e. me for the first 6 months of owning a TT bike)!
    AaronWebsteyGasBomb
  • Options
    Alistair Brownlee's "strong" bike is an understatement. He is STRONGEST bike. As in strongest in the field. It's his best discipline of the three. Like some roadies struggling on the TT, perhaps he will, too, but I wouldn't bet against him.
    AaronWebsteyMartinGranpa Chook
    Professional Triathlete
    twitter: @jasonpedersen
    instagram: @jpbjorn
    web: http://www.runpd.com
  • Options
    What I'm really looking forward to is a complete and utter meltdown by Richard Murray when a WTC official gives him a warning or penalty. I foresee a bike being tossed like a frisbee, a water bottle assault, etc. The sport needs a John MacEnroe (sp?).
    AaronWebsteyRobert RankinGasBombrangamelM Warembrekk44Tad_MachrowiczCraig DStruangKenElPescadoPeladoand 1 other.
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    I think he struggles learning how to *race* long course the first year (fitness great and all but every distance/race is its own animal), second year he crushes then breaks himself ... Agree that Gomez and Johny are the longer term bets
    AaronWebsteyGasBomb
  • Options
    I'd say strong...to quite strong.
    AaronWebstey
  • Options
    Martin said:

    What I'm really looking forward to is a complete and utter meltdown by Richard Murray when a WTC official gives him a warning or penalty. I foresee a bike being tossed like a frisbee, a water bottle assault, etc. The sport needs a John MacEnroe (sp?).

    YES!!!


    AaronWebsteyGasBomb
    Sometimes I tweet... Follow PescadoPelado

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